1952年—2010年中国人口分布与社会经济发展的时空耦合特征分析

1952年—2010年中国人口分布与社会经济发展的时空耦合特征分析 Temporal-Spatial coupling analysis between population change trend and socioeconomic development in China from 1952 to 2010 杨强 YANG Qiang 1 first-author 王运动 WANG Yundong 1 李丽 LI Li 2 王心源 WANG Xinyuan 2 何立恒 HE Liheng 1 南京林业大学土木工程学院 南京林业大学土木工程学院 College of Civil Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University College of Civil Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 中国科学院遥感与数字地球研究所 Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth,Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth,Chinese Academy of Sciences 人口经济的时空耦合态势是中国区域社会经济发展空间均衡过程的重要体现,可有效地指导中国经济布局、民政建设、交通发展和环境管理等相关政策和措施的制定和实施。在地理信息系统（GIS）的支持下,采用人口分布结构指数、人口密度基尼系数、人口经济重心迁移、空间自相关分析等方法,对1935年—2010年6期县级行政单元人口普查统计数据进行空间插值,实现人口密度分界线的空间刻画及其变化趋势分析,结合1952年—2010年省级行政单元人口、经济统计数据,从人口与经济重心空间耦合及其空间一致性两个角度来揭示社会经济与人口分布的时空差异,剖析人口分布与社会经济的联系。得出以下结论:（1）由于社会历史、自然环境和经济条件的影响,中国人口空间分布的时空演变特征不尽相同,东西部差异较大,且不均衡态势日益明显。（2）胡焕庸线至今仍能很好的概括中国人口东南地狭人稠、西北地广人稀的空间分布格局,但是甘肃、宁夏、内蒙古地区的人口分布已经在局部范围内突破了胡焕庸线的限制,中国人口分布在一定程度上呈现向西部转移的趋势。（3）中国人口分布与经济发展空间一致性的地域分异特征十分明显,但省际一致性在不断缩小,人口集聚具有较强的经济导向性。（4）全国和东部、中部、西部和东北部四大区域在1952年—2010年的人口经济一致性程度及其变化趋势各异:全国人口经济空间一致性程度相对较低,东北地区人口经济一致性程度较高且还在改善,东部与中部保持稳定,西部较差且呈减弱趋势特征。 The temporal and spatial coupling of population and economy is an important embodiment of the spatial equilibrium of regional social and economic development in China.It can effectively guide the development and implementation of policies and measures of economic spatial pattern,civil affairs,transportation development,and environmental management in China.The paper achieves to reveal the temporal-spatial trend and coupling of population and social economy.Under the support of geographic information system,several methods are applied in the study,such as index of population structure distribution,Gini coefficient of population density,migration of population gravity center,and spatial autocorrelation analysis.County-level census data in the years of 1935,1953,1964,1982,2000,and 2010 were interpolated into a grid format,and population density line was further extracted to analyze the changes and trends of population distribution in China.Population and social economic statistics in different provincial administrative units from 1952 to 2010 were combined.The study revealed a spatial-tempoTal difference of social economy and population distribution,and further analyzed the distribution and its trend of population and social economy from two angles:population and economic center of gravity space coupling,and spatial consistency.Spatial-temporal evolution of population spatial distribution varies in China because of the effect of social history,natural environment,and economic conditions.The difference between east and west regions is large,and the imbalance of the situation is becoming increasingly obvious.The line of Hu Huanyong can still be a good generalization of population distribution in China.The characteristic of spatial distribution pattern is still narrow and thick in the southeastern region,and sparse and wide in the northwest region.In addition,according to the change of population density line,population distribution densities in Gansu,Ningxia,and Inner Mongolia Autonomous have increased obviously.Population distribution has broken the line limitation of Hu Huanyong in partial area in China and has transferred to the west region at some extent.Different regional characteristics of spatial distribution and economic development of population are remarkably obvious in China.However,the consistency of the provinces is shrinking,and the population has a strong economic orientation.Population and economic consistency,and their change trends in the country and the four major regions are different during 1952—2010.The degree of national demographic and economic space consistency is relatively low.Population distribution and social economy in the northeast area have a high consistency degree and continues to improve.The eastern and central regions are in a stable condition.The situation in the western region is poor and still weak. 胡焕庸线 人口分布 空间分析 人口经济-致性 Hu Huanyong line population distribution spatial analyze the consistency of population and economy C924.2;F124 中国科学院数字地球重点实验室开放基金（编号:2014LDE013）;国家自然科学基金（编号:41271427,41371014）;江苏省测绘地理信息科研项目（编号:JSCHKY201507）~~ 2021-06-16 6 20