2005年—2016年南极冰盖物质平衡精细评估

林依静; 于志同; 刘岩; 程晓; 沈强; 赵励耘

doi:10.11834/jrs.20210446

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2005年—2016年南极冰盖物质平衡精细评估
Assessment of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 2005 to 2016
2023年27卷第2期页码：318-334
收稿：2020-10-16，

纸质出版：2023-02-07
DOI： 10.11834/jrs.20210446
稿件说明：

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林依静，于志同，刘岩，程晓，沈强，赵励耘.2023.2005年—2016年南极冰盖物质平衡精细评估.遥感学报，27（2）： 318-334 DOI： 10.11834/jrs.20210446.

Lin Y J，Yu Z T，Liu Y，Cheng X，Shen Q and Zhao L Y. 2023. Assessment of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 2005 to 2016. National Remote Sensing Bulletin， 27（2）：318-334 DOI： 10.11834/jrs.20210446.

摘要

在全球变暖背景下，精细评估南极冰盖物质平衡可以深入探索南极冰盖变化对海平面上升的影响。基于最新的多源遥感冰盖产品，本文改进了通量法（IOM）在触地线处冰通量的评估方法，并逐年逐流域评估了2005年—2016年南极冰盖物质平衡及变化，探讨了其变化的动力学和气候学原因。本文实现了触地线处冰通量的精细评估，与国际同期结果比较此方法结果更合理；同时，对比结果显示细微的数据差异和方法差异会造成IOM法物质平衡估算结果的明显差异。2005年—2016年期间，南极年冰盖物质平衡基本处于物质流失状态，年均物质损耗量为109.1±34.9 Gt/a，年际间波动为±84.1 Gt/a。南极冰盖物质损耗由西南极主导，占总物质损耗量的65.1%；东南极整体处于正平衡状态，但威尔克斯地流域存在明显的物质损耗；南极半岛地区在零平衡状态下波动；岛屿冰通量首次被单独评估，处于负物质平衡状态。冰盖物质平衡变化从整体来看是由表面物质平衡主导的，受年际变化的气候学因素影响；从小尺度范围来看，冰架变薄、冰川崩解导致的触地线处冰通量的动力学变化影响了部分物质损耗严重区域的物质平衡变化，使其在崩解事件发生的年份流失的冰物质量增加。

Abstract

The Antarctic ice sheet is an important indicator of climate change and a driver of sea level rise

with a volume in sea level equivalent terms of 58.3 m. Its tiny change could have a significant impact on the global sea mean level

which is considered to be one of the most serious consequences of future climate change. Therefore

understanding where and how the Antarctic ice mass changes is of societal importance. Considering the few assessments of the interannual change in the Antarctic mass balance

the objective of this paper is to demonstrate the estimation and uncertainty of the annual material balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from 2005 to 2016 based on the Input‒Output Method (IOM). The reasons for the change in the Antarctic ice sheet in various basins have been investigated

which will provide effective supporting data for further studies on the loss of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Compared with other methods for estimating the Antarctic mass balance

the IOM quantifies the difference between mass gain through primarily snowfall and loss by sublimation

meltwater runoff and ice discharge. The advantage of this approach is that it separately calculates changes in each component at the scale of individual glacier drainage basins. Unquestionably

using different datasets could cause great variation. Here

we improve the method to finely evaluate the ice discharge over the grounding line

which can accurately calculate the flux at each outlet unit

ensure time series continuity

and define flux export widths. Finally

for the first time

year-to-year estimates of the ice flux from the islands around Antarctica have been achieved.

Our results are within a reasonable range compared to the international estimates of the Antarctic ice sheet mass balance. During 2005—2016

Antarctica was basically in a loss state

with an average mass loss of 109.1 ± 34.9 Gt/a and a standard deviation of ± 84.1 Gt/a. West Antarctica dominated the mass loss and contributed 65.1% of the total loss

East Antarctica 26.4%

the Peninsula 4.5% and islands 4.0%. All of East Antarctica was in a positive mass balance and showed evident ice mass loss in some basins. The Peninsula fluctuated at zero equilibrium. The islands

accounting for 1.15% of the Antarctic ice sheet

were assessed individually for the first time and found to be in a persistent negative mass balance

with mass loss even exceeding the Peninsula in some years. On the whole

the change in the Antarctic ice sheet mass balance was dominated by the surface mass balance

which was mainly influenced by interannual variability in the climatological factors. From a small-scale perspective

the dynamic changes in ice flux at the grounding line due to ice shelves thinning and iceberg calving affected the mass balance in some regions

resulting in an increase in mass loss during the years of calving events.

This study improves the IOM method for the detailed assessment of the Antarctic ice sheet mass balance during 2005—2016.

关键词

Keywords

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